The underlying coherent behavior in intraday dynamic market equilibrium

PurposeThis paper applies a volume-price probability wave differential equation to propose a conceptual theory and has innovative behavioral interpretations of intraday dynamic market equilibrium price, in which traders' momentum, reversal and interactive behaviors play roles.Design/methodology/approachThe authors select intraday cumulative trading volume distribution over price as revealed preferences. An equilibrium price is a price at which the corresponding cumulative trading volume achieves the maximum value. Based on the existence of the equilibrium in social finance, the authors propose a testable interacting traders' preference hypothesis without imposing the invariance criterion of rational choices. Interactively coherent preferences signify the choices subject to interactive invariance over price.FindingsThe authors find that interactive trading choices generate a constant frequency over price and intraday dynamic market equilibrium in a tug-of-war between momentum and reversal traders. The authors explain the market equilibrium through interactive, momentum and reversal traders. The intelligent interactive trading preferences are coherent and account for local dynamic market equilibrium, holistic dynamic market disequilibrium and the nonlinear and non-monotone V-shaped probability of selling over profit (BH curves).Research limitations/implicationsThe authors will understand investors' behaviors and dynamic markets through more empirical execution in the future, suggesting a unified theory available in social finance.Practical implicationsThe authors can apply the subjects' intelligent behaviors to artificial intelligence (AI), deep learning and financial technology.Social implicationsUnderstanding the behavior of interacting individuals or units will help social risk management beyond the frontiers of the financial market, such as governance in an organization, social violence in a country and COVID-19 pandemics worldwide.Originality/valueIt uncovers subjects' intelligent interactively trading behaviors.

Impact of lockdown and government subsidies on rural households at early COVID-19 pandemic in China

Purpose Given the scarcity of data during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, the decision-making for non-pharmaceutical policies was mostly based on insufficient evidence. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of these policies, such as lockdown and government subsidies, on rural households and identify policy implications for China and other countries in dealing with pandemics. Design/methodology/approach The authors survey 2,408 rural households by telephone from 101 counties across 17 provinces in China during the first stage of the pandemic (March 2020). The authors use the ordered probit model and linear regression model to study the overall impact of policies and then use the quantile regression model and sub-sample regression method to study the heterogeneity of the effects of government policies. Findings The authors find that logistics disruption due to lockdown negatively affected rural households. Obstructed logistics is associated with a more significant loss for high-income households, while its impact on the loss expectation of low-income households is more severe. Breeding and other industries such as transport and sales suffer more from logistics than cultivation. The impact of logistics on intensive agricultural entities is more serious than that on professional farms. The government subsidy is more effective at reducing loss for low-income households. Lockdown and government subsidies have shown heterogeneous impacts on rural households. Practical implications The overall economic losses experienced by rural households in the early stages of the pandemic are controllable. The government policies of logistics and subsidies should target specific groups. Originality/value The authors evaluate the economic impacts of lockdown and government subsidies on rural households and show their heterogeneity among different groups. The authors further demonstrate the policy effectiveness in supporting rural households during the early stages of the pandemic and provide future policy guidance on major public health event.

On inequality, growth and trust: some evidence from the lab

In a novel experimental design, we investigate the impact of exogenous variation in economic growth and inequality on trusting behaviour. In addition to a control with uniform endowment, three treatments were implemented where the initial endowment is exogenously changed to produce inequality and three growth scenarios where average endowments increase (boom), decrease (recession) or remain unaltered (steady state). We find that aggregate trust and trustworthiness both decrease due to the induced heterogeneity in endowments. Also, trust (but not trustworthiness) decreases (increases) due to recessions (booms). The impact of inequality on trust is greatest in a recession and absent in a boom. These aggregate effects are driven mainly by the reactions of those who, after treatment, end up at the bottom of the endowment distribution. These findings are close in sign and in the order of magnitude to those reported in observational studies on the relationship between growth, inequality and trust.